By Chris Matthews

Founder & CEO

Agricane

Southern Africa is bracing for a powerful El Niño, one that will test Agricane’s expertise and farmer-led innovation to the limit in the hot, dry, low-altitude conditions of Malawi’s Lower Shire Valley

For farmers across the world, 2026 will be dominated by El Niño - the periodic warming of the tropical Pacific that disrupts global weather patterns.  Against an alarming trend of record heat, drought, and rainfall, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization has warned of a longer, stronger El Niño that can “deal a massive blow” to communities and economies alike.

This is of great concern to us, both for our commercial farming and especially for our partner communities dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Following the 2023/4 El Niño, the Government’s Department of Climate reported that maize production had dropped by 22.7%, leaving 4.2 million Malawians facing food shortages. For households without savings or seed reserves, crop failures quickly translate into hunger, food insecurity, and poverty

Paradoxically, irrigated agriculture in Southern Malawi may benefit. While recent record-breaking wet seasons brought devastating floods, they also replenished Lake Malawi to record levels. So while El Niño-driven drought is predicted in the south, average to higher rainfall in the north may help maintain lake levels that feed the Shire River - our main source of irrigation water here in the Lower Shire Valley. Water availability, however, is only one part of the challenge. The predicted higher temperatures mean increased evapotranspiration and soil moisture stress, restricting nutrient uptake and disrupting photosynthesis, flowering, and germination, all of which combine to impact yields.

Strategic preparation is crucial

El Niño events are cyclical, and the multiple early-warning alerts issued so far mean no-one should be caught by surprise – early action is vital. For resilient irrigated commercial agriculture that means adequate planning to ensure our systems operate at peak capacity with minimal downtime. Our engineering and production teams are reviewing our water management structures, ensuring existing systems provide uninterrupted performance by servicing our field equipment such as pumps, pivots, and all water-control systems. Given the expected severity of El Niño, any minor breakdown or inefficiency can amplify consequences.

An opportunity to innovate and stress-test

Rain-fed farming is far more vulnerable and provides a clear case for strengthening agricultural infrastructure, accelerating ongoing efforts to bring irrigated farming to the region, and speeding up the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and approaches.

One such mega-infrastructure project is the World Bank’s $500m+ Shire Valley Transformation Program (SVTP) which aims to bring irrigated agriculture to 44,000 hectares of farmland in the Lower Shire River Valley, reducing dependence on rainfall and providing the foundation for year-round production.

We’re advising on the project and coordinating the establishment of farmer cooperatives that can improve efficiency and resilience through economy of scale, but participating farmers will still need to make a considerable leap from subsistence rainfed production of crops like maize, to more commercially oriented irrigated agriculture of tree crops, row crops, sugar and legumes. That is where our Hope Farm training center comes in.

Lead farmers from the Phata and Kasinthula cooperatives which we helped establish and which now operate independently with our guidance, are sharing their expertise with their stakeholders, while Hope Farm is training not just farmers, but, importantly, community extension workers, who can multiply those skills across communities.

The same principle of farmer-led collaboration guides our Sangowa Research and Innovation Hub where famers, buyers, Ministry research institutions, and science partners like CGIAR and SIL, are working together to develop and test improved smallholder irrigation techniques, soil health approaches like inter- and diversified cropping, biological pest controls and soil improvers, and resilient crops suited to hot, dryland, low-altitude settings. Meanwhile our partner Palladium, through its Growth Pole initiative, is strengthening the market and value chains of farmers, buyers, processors and offtakers so that especially smallholders can access wider markets, making them more resilient to shocks.

This collaboration was demonstrated at the annual Legume Tour held recently on Sangowa Farm and attended by Malawi’s Minister of Agriculture H.E. Roza Mblizi and Ireland’s Ambassador to Malawi H.E. Kate Brady, numerous stakeholders presented new climate-resilient legume-varieties and practical innovations, tested under real-world conditions and responding to priorities identified by local farmers.

Finally, should communities be overwhelmed, the locally led Kaombe Community Development Trust we established more than a decade ago - which now funds itself through the proceeds of its Kaombe sugar ranch - has resources to provide emergency food assistance.

A globally relevant living lab

While we do our best to predict and overcome the challenges of El Niño, its uncertain parameters will provide Agricane with a demanding stress test of our preparation, engineering, innovation, and partnerships with farmers, under the real-world living laboratory of the hot, dry, low-altitude setting of the Lower Shire Valley. Success matters not only for Malawi, but for global agriculture facing similar conditions.

However, regardless of the technologies available to strengthen both commercial irrigated and smallholder rain-fed agriculture, there is a limit to what can be achieved - we cannot indefinitely engineer our way out of intensifying weather extremes.

Current adaptation and mitigation measures are delivering technologies, products and more sustainable approaches that are healthier for people and planet. But these efforts must be accompanied by unified global action on tackling the underlying drivers, before the limits of adaptation are reached.